November 11, 2002

THE 2002 ELECTIONS: A FIRST LOOK

We have reviewed the November 5 election results and believe that the political and legislative implications will be substantial for the next two years and probably beyond.

• This is the best overall showing for an "in" party (i.e., the President's party) since Theodore Roosevelt's Republicans in 1902. The "in party" has not made House gains in the first "off- year" of a presidential term since Franklin Roosevelt in 1934. The "in party" had NEVER before taken over a legislative chamber in an off year election. Political scientists will now try to determine whether the traditional bias against the "ins" has disappeared, or whether the 2002 elections are an aberration.

• The results must be seen as a huge victory for President Bush who campaigned for virtually all Republican winners in close elections. Voters clearly trusted President Bush to prosecute the war on terrorism and did not hold him responsible for the state of the economy.

• Near complete voter totals have Republicans gaining five House seats, increasing their margin to 228-207. Current Senate totals are 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 1 Independent (James Jeffords) and Mary Landrieu’s Louisiana seat which will be decided in a December runoff.

• Reports indicate that turnout was approximately 38% of voting age population, well within the normal range for a mid-term election.

• At this writing, demographic breakdown of voters is not available due to unreliability of figures generated by the Voting News Service (VNS). There is some anecdotal evidence to suggest that Republicans were successful in increasing their vote among Hispanics, White Women, Suburban Voters and Roman Catholics.

• Losing the Senate may further spur Minority Leader Tom Daschle to seek the presidency in 2004, which he may have done in any event. As Minority Leader, he will lack the power to control the Senate's agenda, but he will be free to criticize the President's agenda more freely, shedding responsibility to offer comprehensive Democratic alternatives. Other Democratic senators expected to make the race include John Kerry of Massachusetts, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, and John Edwards of North Carolina. Sen. Hillary Clinton's intentions are unknown at this point. Her name is mentioned most in Republican and media circles, while Democrats are discreetly mindful of the obstacles to nomination she would face. The new crop of Democratic governors will be examined closely by those who try to predict the Democrats' 2004 nominee

• Former Vice President Al Gore continues to be the front runner for the 2004 nomination. Though keeping a relatively low profile, he did burnish his credentials among Democratic activists by giving critical speeches of Bush on the economy and the war on terrorism.

• Perhaps the best state for Republicans last evening was GEORGIA where the GOP elected a new senator, the first GOP governor since Reconstruction, and members in two new house seats that had been expected to go Democratic. Democratic Governor Roy Barnes, who was defeated, had been on the "long list" of Democratic presidential contenders.

• New Republican faces in the Senate include: John Sununu (NH), Lindsay Graham (SC), Elizabeth Dole (NC), Saxby Chambliss (Ga), Lamar Alexander (Tn), John Cornyn (Tx), Jim Talent (Mo), and Norm Coleman (Minnesota). The only new Democratic face is Mark Pryor of Arkansas. Tim Hutchinson, the incumbent who was defeated, was first elected as a Christian conservative, and alienated his base voters by divorcing his wife and marrying a woman who served on his staff.

• There is talk that DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe may lose his job over the evening's disappointing results. There will also be repercussions within the House and Senate Democratic caucuses where their leaders will face many questions and much dissatisfaction. Many Democrats are now criticizing their leaders for failing to offer a complete alternative agenda and for acquiescing too often in the Republican agenda. Some of the defeated Democratic incumbents had been frequent supporters of Bush's agenda in the Senate. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Patty Murray had a poor outing; Senator John Corzine of New Jersey will replace her.

• Among Republicans, some big winners include: President Bush, Trent Lott who becomes the new Senate Majority Leader, House Campaign Chief Tom Davis, Senate campaign head Bill Frist, and Rudolph Guliani, former New York Mayor who campaigned tirelessly for Republicans across the country.

• Democrats made their best gains of the evening by winning the statehouses in large states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin. California Governor Gray Davis was reelected but not by an impressive margin. Democrats also won races in conservative states such as Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arizona. These new statehouses will help the Democratic nominee in the 2004 campaign.

• Republicans made gains in some of the more LIBERAL states in the Union including: Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, Minnesota and Hawaii, all states won by Michael Dukakis in his losing presidential race in 1988. Republicans also won upset victories in South Carolina and Georgia, ousting popular incumbents in both states.

• These trends illustrate an interesting point: Governors races tend to be less ideological than Congressional races, and more about personality and issues of sound management. This may be related to the recent success of governors in presidential elections.

• Winners with future national ambitions include Republicans Jeb Bush of Florida, George Pataki of New York, and Bill Owens of Colorado who won one of the evening's largest majorities with nearly two thirds of the vote. On the Democratic side, California Governor Gray Davis won reelection and has been mentioned as a potential national candidate for the Democrats, though his victory margin was unimpressive.

• Republican majorities in the House and Senate guarantee that President Bush will push his legislative priorities with new energy next year. These priorities include: establishment of a Department of Homelands Security, energy legislation, pension reform, prescription drug legislation emphasizing private insurance, tort reform including some caps on non-economic damages, making the tax cuts permanent including elimination of the estate tax, confirming more judicial nominees, and measures to further the war on terrorism. Conservatives are likely to seek passage of further restrictions on abortion.

• Democrats will still retain at least 47 seats in the Senate (plus Jeffords and Landrieu), where 60 votes are needed to end debate on a bill or amendment. As a result, they will be able to block legislation when they can remain unified. Daschle will be able to hold together 40 votes on some issues, but will see defections on some. Conservative Democrats will continue to hold some power independent of the leadership, as "deal brokers."

• House Democrats may move to the left with the departure of Minority Leader Richard Gephardt to run for president. If he departs the leadership, Nancy Pelosi, a liberal Democrat from San Francisco, who is expected to take a more confrontational tone with the White House, may replace him. 

• Most importantly, key Senate Committee Chairs will change. Here are the major changes and some notes on major policy implications.

 

Committee	Old	New	Jurisdictional Issues
Agriculture	Tom Harkin	Thad Cochran	"Packer Ownership" and food issues
Appropriations	Robert Byrd	Ted Stevens	Smaller Approps Bills
Commerce	Ernest Hollings	John McCain	TORT Reform; asbestos litigation; telecommunications legislation
Armed Services	Carl Levin	John Warner	SDI; military spending
Banking	Paul Sarbanes	Richard Shelby	Corporate governance; accounting reform
Energy	Jeff Bingman	Peter Domenici	Energy legislation; ANWR
Environment	Jim Jeffords	Jim Inhofe	All environmental laws
Finance	Max Baucus	Charles Grassley	Tax cuts; entitlements
Foreign Relations	Joseph Biden	Richard Lugar
Health & Labor	Ted Kennedy	Judd Gregg	Healthcare and pension issues
Gov’t Affairs	Joseph Lieberman	Susan Collins	Homelands Security
Judiciary	Patrick Leahy	Orrin Hatch	Judicial Nominations