May 7, 2019
Donatelli Details 6 Numbers That Could Influence Trump’s 2020 Campaign
In a May 7 opinion piece for Fox News, McGuireWoods Consulting senior advisor, Frank Donatelli, broke down six numbers that could influence Trump’s 2020 campaign – three that may help his reelection bid, and three that may cause concern for his campaign team.
1.) 3.2 percent GDP growth in the first quarter of 2019.
“This marks the fourth time that the quarterly economy has grown by 3 percent during the first two years of the Trump presidency,” Donatelli noted. “GDP drives many other economic numbers – high employment, more federal revenue and a robust stock market.”
2.) 54 percent of voters 18-29 said they did not believe the president cares about “people like me” in a recent Harvard Institute of Politics survey.
“Young voters, properly motivated, can drive turnout and increase voter participation,” Donatelli said. “The Harvard survey also indicates that Democratic-leaning young voters are far more energized to participate in next year’s elections than are young Republicans.”
3.) 22 (expected) announced Democratic presidential candidates.
“The Democratic nominee will have a major challenge to unite a fractious party and drive a coherent message into the general election.” He added, “The DNC and congressional leaders can and must play an important role in keeping the party united as the primary process unfolds.”
4.) 58 percent of voters said they did not believe the president told the truth during the Mueller investigation, according to a recent ABC News survey.
“Truthfulness is a bedrock issue for a president who leans on credibility when asking the public for support on a range of issues and priorities. Truthfulness is also critical to winning the trust of the American people as a president seeks to meet their responsibilities and to act during times of crisis,” said Donatelli.
5.) 56 percent of voters oppose impeachment proceedings, according to the same ABC News survey.
“We know that 15 percent of the electorate simultaneously does not approve of the president, but also opposes impeachment,” Donatelli noted. “These voters represent an inviting target for the president’s campaign message that his political opponents are harassing him and are not focused on the real needs of the country.”
6.) 37 percent of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction, 57 percent think we are on the wrong track, according to an average of last month’s surveys from RealClearPolitics.
“Incumbent presidents are judged on their record of solving America’s problems,” Donatelli said. “Right direction numbers usually correlate with presidential job approval and ultimately presidential support.”
As the 2020 campaign progresses, these numbers will be worth watching.
“The winning campaign will define the public’s priorities consistent with their candidate’s strengths and goals — and very likely, who knows best how to read the right numbers,” Donatelli said.