CONSISTENTLY DELIVERS

Oct 21, 2016

NCGA Week in Review: Spotlight on State House Elections

Interim Committee Meetings

Joint Legislative Program Evaluation Oversight Committee

On Tuesday, the House Select Committee on Education Strategy and Practices met to discuss topics including competency based learning, high school start times, the NC Promise Tuition Plan that was passed in the 2016-17 budget and issues surrounding special education

Follow this link to view all of the presentations reviewed at Tuesday’s meeting.

Spotlight on State House Elections

The NC House of Representatives is made up of 120 members, each of whom serve two year terms and elections are held on even-numbered years. There are no term limits for state legislators.

A voter guide for all North Carolina elections is available here.

Election Forecast

The Republicans currently hold a supermajority in the House with 75 of the 120 seats. Though it is technically possible for the Democrats to regain a majority, it is viewed as highly unlikely that a major shift in power will occur. The Democratic party has set sights on ending the GOP supermajority instead.

Of the 120 seats – there are 58 candidates, 30 Democrats and 28 Republicans, running without opposition.

In the contested elections, many factors will figure into the races: the district’s partisan voting habits, fundraising and advertising efforts, local and statewide news and the power of incumbency all play into election results.

Contested Elections

There are 62 contested elections on the November ballot. Of these races all but nine include an incumbent:

District 1 (Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Tyrell): Republican incumbent Bob Steinburg will face Democratic challenger Sam Davis in this highly Republican district.

District 2 (Granville, Person): Larry Yarborough , the Republican incumbent, will face Democrat Joe Parrish. The Civitas Institute has identified this race as one to watch due to being a swing district. Two years ago, Yarborough won by a 6.7% margin.

District 3 (Beaufort, Crave, Pamlico): Republican incumbent Michael Speciale will face Democrat Marva Fisher Baldwin; the third district highly prefers Republican candidates.

District 6 (Beaufort, Dare, Hyde, Washington): This seat was left open after unaffiliated Rep. Paul Tine announced he would not seek reelection. Democrat Warren Judge will face Republican Beverly Boswell in this race. Though the district tends to favor republicans, Tine was elected as a Democrat before switching his affiliation to unaffiliated.

District 7 (Franklin, Nash): Democratic incumbent Bobbie Richardson will face Republican challenger William Duke-Hancock II on November 8. The 7 th district has a strong tendency to lean Democratic.

District 9 (Pitt): Republican incumbent Greg Murphy, who was appointed when Brian Brown Resigned last year, will face Brian Farkas. The district tends to lean Republican.

District 10 (Craven, Greene, Lenoir, Wayne): John Bell , the Republican incumbent, will face Evelyn Paul.The 10th District strongly favors Republican candidates.

District 11 (Wake): Democratic incumbent Duane Hall faces both Republican candidate Ray Martin and Libertarian Brian Lewis. Th 11th Districts leans Democratic.

District 13 (Cataret, Jones): Republican incumbent Pat McElraft will face Rodney Alexander. The district tends to have a preference for Republican candidates.

District 15 (Onslow): Phil Shepard , the Republican incumbent, will face Democrat Dan Whitten in the Republican leaning district.

District 16 (Onslow, Pender): In this Republican leaning district, Republican incumbent Chris Millis will face Democrat Steve Unger.

District 17 (Brunswick): Democrat Charles Warren seeks to unseat Republican incumbent Frank Iler; the district favors Republicans.

District 18 (Brunswick, New Hanover): Republican Gerald Benton is challenging Democratic incumbent Susi Hamilton; the district tends to lean Democratic.

District 25 (Franklin, Nash): Republican incumbent Jeffrey Collins will face Democrat James Gailliard. The district tends to lean slightly in favor of Republican candidates.

District 26 (Johnston): Republican incumbent Leo Daughtry is not seeking reelection, leaving the seat open. Democrat Rich Nixon and Republican Donna McDowell White will face each other on the ballot.

District 28 (Johnston): This seat was left open when Republican Rep. James Langdon announced that he would not seek reelection. DemocratPatricia Oliver will face Republican candidate Larry Strickland. The district tends to lean slightly in favor of Republican candidates.

District 30 (Durham): Democratic incumbent Paul Luebke will face Elissa Fuchs. The district leans strongly in favor of Democrats.

District 34 (Wake): Democratic incumbent Grier Martin faces Republican Bill Morris in the Democratic leaning district.

District 35 (Wake): Republican incumbent Chris Malone will face Democrat Terence Everitt. The district tends to lean slightly in favor of Republicans.

District 36 (Wake): Republican incumbent and senior budget writer Nelson Dollar faces challenges from both Democratic candidate Jen Ferrell and Libertarian Brian Irving. The district tends to lean slightly Republican.

District 37 (Wake): This seat was left open when Republican Paul Stam announced he would not seek reelection. Democrat Randy Barrow, Republican Linda Hunt-Williams and Libertarian Robert Rose will appear on the ballot in the district which tends to favor Republicans.

District 38 (Wake): In a district that tends to heavily favor Democrats, Democratic incumbent Yvonne Holley will face Libertarian Olen Watson III.

District 40 (Wake): Republican incumbent Marilyn Avila will face Democrat Joe John; the district tends to lean slightly Republican.

District 41 (Wake): In 41st District, which tends to be party-neutral, Gale Adcock, Democrat and incumbent, will face Republican Chris Shoffner.

District 44 (Cumberland): Democratic incumbent William Richardson will face Republican Jim Arp. Richardson was appointed when Rick Glazier resigned last year. The district tends to slightly favor Democrats.

District 46 (Bladen, Columbus, Robeson): Democrat Tim Benton, Republican Brenden Jones and Libertarian Thomas Howell, Jr. seek to fill the seat left open by Democrat Ken Waddell’s retirement from the legislature. The district tends to lean slightly in favor of Democrats.

District 49 (Wake): Democrat Cynthia Ball and Libertarian David Ulmer seek to unseat Republican incumbent Gary Pendleton. The district tends to lean slightly in favor of Republican candidates.

District 50 (Durham, Orange): Democratic incumbent Graig Meyer will face Republican Rod Chaney. Two years ago, Meyer won the seat against Chaney by 16 points. The district tends to favor Democratic candidates.

District 51 (Harnett, Lee): Brad Salmon , a Democrat and incumbent, will face Republican John Sauls on the ballot. The district tends to lean in favor of Republican candidates.

District 53 (Harnett): Republican incumbent David Lewis will face Democrat Jon Blum in a district that has a tendency to lean Republican.

District 54 (Chatham, Lee): Democratic incumbent Robert Reives will face Republican John Wesley Seawell; the district tends to lean Democratic.

District 55 (Anson, Union): Mark Brody , the Republican incumbent, will face Democrat Kim Hargett; the district tends to favor Republican candidates.

District 59 (Guilford): Democrat Scott Jones seeks to unseat Republican incumbent Jon Hardister in a district that has a preference for Republican candidates.

District 65 (Caswell, Rockingham): Republican incumbent Bert Jones will be challenged by Democrat H. Keith Duncan; the district tends to lean Republican.

District 67 (Montgomery, Stanly): Republican incumbent Justin Burr faces challenges from both Democrat Carson Snyder and unaffiliated candidate Billy Mills in a district that tends to strongly favor Republican candidates.

District 69 (Union): In the 69th District, which tends to strongly favor Republican candidates, Republican incumbent Dean Arp will face Gordon Daniels.

District 70 (Randolph): Democrat Lois Bohnsack will challenge Republican incumbent Pat Hurley in the district which tends to strongly favor Republicans.

District 74 (Forsyth): Republican incumbent Debra Conrad will be challenged by Democrat Marilynn Baker; the district tends to favor Republicans.

District 78 (Moore, Randolph): In a district that tends to strongly favor Republicans, Republican incumbent Allen McNeill will face Democrat Bill McCaskill.

District 81 (Davidson): Following Republican Rayne Brown’s announcement that she would not seek reelection, Democrat Andy Hedrick will face Republican Larry Potts in a district that tends to strongly favor Republicans.

District 82 (Cabarrus): Republican incumbent Larry Pittman will face Democratic challenger Earle Schecter; the 82nd District tends to support Republican candidates.

District 83 (Cabarrus): Democratic challenger Jeremy Hachen seeks to unseat Republican incumbent Linda Johnson in a district which tends to favor Republicans.

District 84 (Iredell): Republican incumbent Rena Turner will face Democrat John Wayne Kahl; the district tends to strongly support Republicans.

District 86 (Burke): Republican incumbent Hugh Blackwell will face Democrat Tim Barnsback in a district that leans in favor of Republican candidates.

District 88 (Mecklenburg): Democrat Mary Belk will challenge Republican incumbent Rob Bryan. The district tends to favor Republican candidates.

District 90 (Surry, Wilkes): Republican incumbent Sarah Stevens will face Democrat Vera Smith Reynolds. The district tends to strongly favor Republicans.

District 91 (Mecklenburg): Democrat Eugene Russell seeks to unseat Republican incumbent Kyle Hall in a district that tends to strongly favor Republicans.

District 92 (Mecklenburg): When Republican incumbent Charles Jeter pulled out of his reelection campaign, Beth Danae Caulfield was appointed to take his place. She will face Democrat Chaz Beasley. The district has a slight preference for Democratic candidates.

District 93 (Ashe, Watauga): Democrat Sue Counts seeks to unseat Republican incumbent Jonathan Jordan. The district tends to slightly favor Republican candidates.

District 94 (Alleghany, Wilkes): Republican incumbent Jeffrey Elmore will face Democrat Michael Lentz. The district tends to have a strong preference for Republican candidates.

District 98 (Mecklenburg): Unaffiliated candidate Jane Campbell will challenge Republican incumbent John Bradford III in the 98th district, which tends to lean Republican.

District 101 (Mecklenburg): Democratic incumbent Beverly Earle will be challenged by Republican Justin Dunn. The district tends to strongly favor Democratic candidates.

District 103 (Mecklenburg): Democrat Rochelle Rivas will challenge Republican incumbent William Brawley in the district which tends to lean Republican.

District 104 (Mecklenburg): Democrat Peter Noris and Republican Andy Dulin will face each other to fill this seat left when Republican Dan Bishop chose not to seek reelection. The district has a preference for Republican candidates.

District 105 (Gaston): Republican incumbent Scott Stone, who was appointed when Jacqueline Schaeffer resigned from her position, will face Democratic challenger Connie Green-Johnson. The district tends to favor Republicans.

District 109 (Gaston): Democrat Susan Maxon seeks to challenge Republican incumbent Dana Bumgardner; the district tends to favor Republican candidates.

District 112 (Burke. Rutherford): Republican incumbent David Rogers will be challenged by unaffiliated candidate Ben Edwards in the 112th District, which tends to favor Republican candidates. Rogers was appointed when Mike Hager resigned from the House earlier this year.

District 113 (Henderson, Polk, Transylvania): Democrat Maureen Mahan Copelof and Republican Cody Henson seek to fill the seat that was left empty when Republican Chris Whitmire retired from the legislature. The district tends to favor Republican candidates.

District 115 (Henderson): Democratic incumbent John Ager will face Republican Frank Moretz in a district with a slight preference for Republican candidates.

District 116 (Buncombe): Republican Kay Olsen seeks to challenge Democratic incumbent Brian Turner; the district tends to lean Republican.

District 118 (Haywood, Madison, Yancey): Democrat Rhonda Cole Schandevel seeks to unseat Republican incumbent Michele Presnell. The district tends to favor Republican candidates.

District 119 (Haywood, Jackson, Swain): Democratic incumbent Joe Sam Queen will face Mike Clampitt in the district tends to slightly favor Democrats.

District 120 (Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Macon): Democrat Randy Hogseed and Republican Kevin Corbin will face off for this seat which was left empty when Republican Roger West retired from the legislature; the district tends to strongly favor Republicans.

Uncontested Races

The following candidates are running unopposed:

District 4 (Duplin, Wayne): Rep. Jimmy Dixon – Republican

District 5 (Bertie, Gates, Hertford and Pasquotank): Rep. Howard Hunter III – Democrat

District 12 (Craven, Greene Lenior): Rep. George Graham – Democrat

District 14 (Onslow): Rep. George Cleveland – Republican

District 19 (New Hanover): Rep. Ted Davis, Jr. – Republican

District 20 (New Hanover): Rep. Holly Grange – Republican

District 21 (Duplin, Sampson, Wayne): Rep. Larry Bell – Democrat

District 22 (Bladen, Johnson, Sampson): Rep. William Brisson – Democrat

District 23 (Edgecomb, Martin): Rep. Shelly Willingham – Democrat

District 24 (Pitt, Wilson): Rep. Jean Farmer-Butterfield – Democrat

District 27 (Halifax, Northampton): Rep. Michael Wray – Democrat

District 29 (Durham): Rep. Larry Hall – Democrat

District 31 (Durham): Rep. Henry Michaux, Jr. – Democrat

District 32 (Granville, Vance, Warren): Terry Garrison – Democrat

District 33 (Wake): Rep. Rosa Gill – Democrat

District 39 (Wake): Rep. Darren Jackson – Democrat

District 42 (Cumberland): Rep. Marvin Lucas Jr. – Democrat

District 43 (Cumberland): Rep. Elmer Floyd – Democrat

District 47 (Robeson): Rep. Charles Graham – Democrat

District 48 (Hoke, Richmond, Robeson, Scotland): Rep. Garland Pierce – Democrat

District 56 (Orange): Rep. Verla Insko – Democrat

District 57 (Guilford): Rep. Pricey Harrison – Democrat

District 58 (Guilford): Amos Quick – Democrat

District 60 (Guilford): Rep. Cecil Brockman – Democrat

District 61 (Guilford): Rep. John Faircloth – Republican

District 62 (Guilford): Rep. John Blust – Republican

District 63 (Alamance): Rep. Stephen Ross – Republican

District 64 (Alamance): Rep. Dennis Riddell – Republican

District 66 (Hoke, Montgomery, Richmond, Robeson, Scotland): Rep. Ken Goodman – Democrat

District 68 (Union): Rep. Craig Horn – Republican

District 71 (Forsyth): Rep. Evelyn Terry – Democrat

District 72 (Forsyth): Rep. Ed Hanes, Jr . – Democrat

District 73 (Alexander, Wilkes, Yadkin): Rep. Lee Zachary – Republican

District 75 (Forsyth): Rep. Donny Lambeth – Republican

District 76 (Cabarus, Rowan): Rep. Carl Ford – Republican

District 77 (Rowan): Rep. Harry Warren – Republican

District 79 (Davie, Forsyth): Rep. Julia Howard – Republican

District 80 (Davidson): Rep. Sam Watford – Republican

District 87 (Caldwell): Destin Hall – Republican

District 89 (Catawba): Rep. Mitchell Setzer – Republican

District 95 (Iredell): Rep. John Fraley – Republican

District 96 (Catawba): Rep. Jay Adams – Republican

District 97 (Lincoln): Rep. Jason Saine – Republican

District 99 (Mecklenburg): Rep. Rodney Moore – Democrat

District 100 (Mecklenburg): John Autry – Democrat

District 102 (Mecklenburg): Rep. Becky Carney – Democrat

District 106 (Mecklenburg): Rep. Carla Cunningham – Democrat

District 107 (Mecklenburg): Rep. Kelly Alexander – Democrat

District 108 (Gaston): Rep. John Torbett – Republican

District 110 (Cleveland, Gaston): Rep. Kelly Hastings – Republican

District 111 (Henderson, Polk, Transylvania): Rep. Tim Moore – Republican

District 114 (Buncombe): Rep. Susan Fisher – Democrat

District 117 (Henderson): Rep. Chuck McGrady – Republican

Not Seeking Reelection

The following members of the 2015-16 NC House of Representatives are not seeking reelection:

District 6 (Beaufort, Dare, Hyde, Washington): Paul Tine – unaffiliated

District 20 (New Hanover): Rick Catlin – Republican

District 26 (Johnston): Leo Daughtry – Republican

District 28 (Johnston): James Langdon – Republican

District 32 (Granville, Vance, Warren): Nathan Baskerville – Democrat

District 37 (Wake): Paul Stam – Republican

District 46 (Bladen, Columbus, Robeson): Ken Waddell – Democrat

District 81 (Davidson): Rayne Brown – Republican

District 100 (Mecklenburg): Tricia Cotham – Democrat

District 104 (Mecklenburg): Dan Bishop – Republican

District 105 (Mecklenburg): Jacqueline Schaffer – Republican

District 112 (Burke, Rutherford): Mike Hager – Republican

District 113 (Henderon, Polk, Transylvania): Chris Whitmire – Republican

District 120 (Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Macon): Roger West – Republican