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Nov 8, 2018

Illinois Update: 2018 Midterm Election Overview

Notes: Generally, winners are indicated in bold. Numbers may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

Executive Summary:

  • Democrat J.B. Pritzker resoundingly defeated incumbent Republican governor Bruce Rauner 54-40.
    • Pritzker: 54%
    • Rauner: 40%
    • Others: 7%

  • This year’s gubernatorial election was the most expensive in state history, with more than $284M in funds raised through the cycle. In terms of spending, Pritzker and Rauner alone have spent more than $240M.

  • Pritzker’s victory ends a tumultuous period of divided government in Illinois. Rauner’s tenure was defined by a two-year budget impasse in which the state’s unpaid bills skyrocketed and many social service providers were forced to cut services or close.

  • All statewide elected offices were won by Democrats. 

  • With longtime Democrat Attorney General Lisa Madigan not running for re-election, the race was an open contest. Democrat state Senate Kwame Raoul defeated his Republican opponent Erika Harold.

  • Democratic incumbent Susana Mendoza was re-elected to her position as Comptroller, defeating her Republican opponent Darlene Senger. Mendoza is a likely Chicago mayoral candidate.

  • Democratic incumbent Jesse White was re-elected to his position as Secretary of State defeating his Republican opponent Jason Helland. White has held the post since 1999.

  • Democratic incumbent Michael Frerichs was re-elected to his position as Treasurer, defeating his Republican opponent Jim Dodge.

  • Democrats could potentially win more than 30 seats in Congress, more than the 23 required. Therefore, Democrats have recaptured the US House of Representatives. This is the first time the Democrats have controlled the chamber following the 2010 elections.

  • Net change in IL Congressional delegation: D+2
    • IL-06: Peter Roskam (R) (i) vs Sean Casten (D). This is a Democratic pickup.
    • IL-14: Randy Hultgren (R) (i) vs Lauren Underwood (D). This is a Democratic pickup.
    • IL-12: Mike Bost (R) (i) vs Brendan Kelly (D). Pulls out close election.
    • IL-13: Rodney Davis (R) (i) vs Betsy Dirksen-Londrigan (D). Davis survives scare.
    • All other Congressional incumbents re-elected.

  • Republicans maintain control of the US Senate. Illinois Senators remain unchanged and maintain a supermajority.

  • With total control of all branches of State government, Democrats will be able to dictate redistricting maps in 2020.

  • House current balance of power: 67-51. Need 71 or 4 seats to retake supermajority; currently sitting on a total of 73 seats.
    • Net change in Statehouse: Democrats gained 7 seats in the House but lost one, resulting in a net gain of 6 seats, thereby allowing Speaker Madigan to regain a veto-proof majority of 73 house member seats. Democrats gained Yednock, Villa, Walker, Costa Howard, Mason, Pappas, and Stava-Murray; Republicans gained 1 seat (Windhorst).
  • Senate current balance of power: 37-22. Need only 36, so already have supermajority.
    • Net change in Illinois Senate: Democrats gained 1 seat (Gillespie); could gain Glowiak but unclear due to incumbent Chris Nybo denying his concession; Michael Connelly and Democratic challenger Laura Ellman for Illinois’ 21st Senate District seat remains too close to call.

Statewide:

Governor:

  • Democrat J.B. Pritzker defeated incumbent Republican governor Bruce Rauner 54-40.
    • Pritzker: 54%
    • Rauner: 40%
    • Others: 7%

Attorney General:

  • Kwame Raoul (D): 54%
  • Erika Harold (R): 43%
  • Others: 2.5%

Comptroller:

  • Susana Mendoza (D): 59%
  • Darlene Senger (R): 38%
  • Others: 3%

Treasurer:

  • Michael Frerichs (D): 57%
  • Jim Dodge (R): 40%
  • Others: 3%

Secretary of State:

  • Jesse White (D): 68%
  • Jason Helland (R): 30%
  • Others: 2.5%

Illinois House of Representatives: Flipped Races

District

Old Occupant

Old Party

New Occupant

New Party

45

Christine Winger

Republican

Diane Pappas

Democrat

48

Peter Breen

Republican

Terra Costa Howard

Democrat

49

Mike Fortner

Republican

Karina Villa

Democrat

53

David Harris

Republican

Mark Walker

Democrat

61

Sheri Jesiel

Republican

Joyce Mason

Democrat

76

Jerry Long

Republican

Lance Yednock

Democrat

81

David Olsen

Republican

Anne-Stava Murray

Democrat

118

Natalie Phelps Finnie

Democrat

Patrick Windhorst

Republican

 

Illinois State Senate: Flipped Races

District

Old Occupant

Old Party

New Occupant

New Party

24

Chris Nybo*

Republican

Suzanne Glowiak

Democrat

27

Tom Rooney

Republican

Ann Gillespie

Democrat

81

Michael Connelly*

Republican

Laura Ellman

Democrat


*
Chris Nybo’s race against Suzanne Glowiak may change due to Nybo denying concession, according to latest reports.

*Michael Connelly’s race against Laura Ellman remains too close to call.