Illinois 2020 Election Results

NOTE: All the results described herein are unofficial results, which are subject to change as additional votes are counted. These changes may impact outcomes, particularly in close races. The State Board of Elections estimates there are potentially still over 465,000 uncounted ballots , the majority of which are uncounted mail-in ballots, which are expected to heavily favor Democrats. Mail-in ballots can be received up to two weeks after Election Day.     

This week proved to be pivotal in shaping the political landscape for both Illinois and the United States. Former Vice President Joe Biden won Illinois, leading by over 600,000 votes with 88% of the expected total vote reporting, but broadly, the down-ballot impact of Trump’s unpopularity for Illinois Republicans seemed to have far less of an impact than that of House Speaker Michael Madigan’s for Democrats. With the vast majority of votes counted, Republicans appeared to net a pickup of two seats in the House while Democrats net gained a seat in the Senate. Janet Yang Rohr and Suzanne Ness flipped Districts 45 and 66 for Democrats, while Republicans flipped previously held Democratic seats in Districts 45, 51, 111, and 116. In the Senate, Karina Villa (D) was leading Jeanette Ward (R) by 1 percentage point in the race to succeed Sen. Jim Oberweis in District 25. The expansion of the blue wave that helped Democrats flip seats, particularly in the suburbs, in 2018 failed to materialize in 2020. In nearly all of the suburban seats the Republicans were defending in the state House, they were able to win. In the Senate, the new projected balance of power is 41-18 (D-R), which is still a supermajority. In the House, the new projected balance of power is 72-46 (D-R), which is a narrow supermajority. See below for a table of projected results in top tier races (many of these are still too close to call).

Chamber	District	Incumbent	Projected Winner	Flip?
House	20	Brad Stephens (R)	Stephens	GOP Hold
House	41	Grant Wehrli (R)	Janet Yang Rohr (D)	DEM Flip
House	42	Amy Grant (R)	Grant	GOP Hold
House	45	Diane Pappas (D)	Seth Lewis (R)	GOP Flip
House	47	Deanne Mazzochi (R)	Mazzochi	GOP Hold
House	48	Terra Costa-Howard (D)	Costa-Howard	DEM Hold
House	49	Karina Villa (D)	Maura Hirschauer (D)	DEM Hold
House	51	Mary Edly-Allen (D)	Chris Bos (R)	GOP Flip
House	54	Tom Morrison (R)	Morrison	GOP Hold
House	61	Joyce Mason (D)	Mason	DEM Hold
House	65	Dan Ugaste (R)	Ugaste	GOP Hold
House	66	Allen Skillicorn (R)	Suzanne Ness (D)	DEM Flip
House	68	John Cabello (R)	Cabello	GOP Hold
House	72	Michael Halpin (D)	Halpin	DEM Hold
House	76	Lance Yednock (D)	Yednock	DEM Hold
House	81	Anne Stava-Murray (D)	Stava-Murray	DEM Hold
House	97	Mark Batinick (R)	Batinick	GOP Hold
House	111	Monica Bristow (D)	Amy Elik (R)	GOP Flip
House	116	Nathan Reitz (D)	David Freiss (R)	GOP Flip
Senate	25	Jim Oberweis (R)	Karina Villa (D)	DEM Flip

In a race that was heavily funded by Speaker Madigan, 20-year incumbent Supreme Court Justice Thomas Kilbride failed to retain his seat, 4% shy of the required 60% with 98% of precincts reporting. At the federal level, Lauren Underwood is currently neck-and-neck with her Republican opponent Jim Oberweis in IL-14. Oberweis is currently winning with 50.1% of the vote, .2% ahead of Underwood, with potentially thousands of outstanding mail ballots to be counted which Underwood is expected to win disproportionately. All other incumbents were re-elected.

In a large blow to Gov. J.B. Pritzker, the graduated income tax amendment, which allowed the state to impose different tax rates on higher income levels, fell short of the majority needed to pass, garnering 45% of votes, with most of the expected total counted. In a press conference on Wednesday, Pritzker told reporters “There will be cuts, and they will be painful.” The graduated income tax was expected to raise at least $3 billion each year. Additional revenue increases, whether in the form of broadening of the sales tax to include services or an increase in fees, is also possible. Pritzker blasted “millionaires and billionaires,” who “lied” about the impact of the amendment in their ad campaigns. Moody’s Investors Service called the loss of $1.3 billion in Fair Tax revenue this year “credit negative” and recommended tax hikes or spending cuts of 10 percent to limit damage. 

In a sign of increasing Democratic discomfort with paying the price for Speaker Madigan’s unpopularity, U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin (D) said that Democratic candidates and causes were hurt by the Speaker’s leadership of the party. “Candidates who had little or no connection with him whatsoever were being tarred as Madigan allies who are behind corruption and so forth and so on,” he continued. “It was really disconcerting to see the price that we paid on that. I hope he takes that to heart and understands that his presence as chairman of our party has not helped.”

Illinois Senate Republican Leader Bill Brady announced Wednesday that he would not seek another term as head of the caucus, saying in a statement that he is stepping down from the post. Dan McConchie (R-Hawthorn Woods) was chosen as Brady’s replacement on Thursday afternoon at a hastily-arranged caucus meeting. Sen. Sue Rezin (R-Morris) will serve as his Deputy Leader.

Important Upcoming Dates – Statewide

November 17, 2020 – Last Day to Tabulate Mail-in Ballots Post-Marked by Election Day

November 17-19, 2020 – First week of Veto Session

December 1-3, 2020 – Second week of Veto Session

December 4, 2020 – Last Day for State Board of Elections to Canvass Election Returns

December 14, 2020 – Electoral Votes Cast in Springfield

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Nov. 4 Preliminary Results

Note: The information below was compiled Nov. 4, 2020 and is based off of the Associated Press (AP) race calls whose results can be found here.

• Despite winning the Presidential race in Illinois and retaining their majorities in both state legislative chambers, Democrats had a weaker than expected night, ceding ground from their Blue Wave strength in the Chicago suburbs in 2018.
• As of this writing at 8:30 AM, many races remain too close to call with an estimated 450,000 mail-in ballots unreturned. Many of these votes are expected to lean heavily-Democratic. Additionally, some voters may have cast provisional ballots. As such, outcomes, particularly in close races, may change. The deadline for receipt of mail ballots postmarked by Election Day, November 3^rd, is two weeks or 11/17.
• With 88% of precincts reporting, former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 12 points 55-43, winning the state’s 20 electoral votes. This margin would be much closer than the polls predicted and smaller than Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margin of 16 points. Note that this is likely to shrink as mail-in votes are counted over the coming days.
  • Projected House Balance of Power (Shift of D -2): 72-46 (D-R), which is a supermajority.
  • Projected Senate Balance of Power (Shift of D+1): 41-18 (D-R), which is a supermajority.
• Democratic Governor JB Pritzker’s Fair Tax appears to have failed, currently losing 55-45%, with 97% of precincts reporting.  The billionaire hotel heir, spent nearly $60M to convince voters to ratify a State graduated income tax Constitutional Amendment.
• Democrats will retain their supermajorities in both state legislative chambers even after an unexpected likely net loss in the House. With Republicans appearing to pick up 4 seats to Democrats’ 2, the Democrats will lose a net 2 seats in the House, barely holding onto their supermajority. In the Senate, Democrats look poised for a net gain of 1 seat. Note that many crucial races remain Too Close To Call (TCTC).  
• At the federal level, all incumbents were re-elected, with the possible exception of freshman Democrat Lauren Underwood (IL-14) whose race remains too close to call. Democrat Marie Newman (IL-3) and Republican Mary Miller (IL-15) will be newcomers as the incumbents in those races were not running in the general election.

Federal

U.S. Senate

• Democrat Dick Durbin easily won re-election to another six-year term winning 52-41 against his Republican opponent.
• Balance of Power: Unchanged. 2 Democratic Senators.

U.S. House

Democratic hopes of expanding their Illinois House Congressional delegation appear to have been dashed, with an inability to pick up IL-13. Democratic Congresswoman Cheri Bustos (IL-17), who is also the chair of the party’s campaign arm, seemingly narrowly defeated her Republican opponent Esther Joy King 52%-48%. Although this is a Trump district, she was expected to win, but the race appears closer than expected.

• IL-06 (D): Democrat Sean Casten won this seat in 2018, a pickup from the Republicans. He appears to have been re-elected although the race has not been called by the AP. He is leading his Republican opponent 52% to Jeanne Ives’ 47%.
• IL-13 (R): A rematch of a 2018 race, incumbent Republican Rodney Davis appears to have defeated Democratic challenger Betsy Dirksen Londrigan by just under 10 points. This is a larger margin than in 2018 though mail-in ballots could narrow this.
• IL-14 (D): Democrat Lauren Underwood flipped this seat in 2018. The race remains too close to call, but she currently narrowly trails Republican Jim Oberweis by just 875 votes. Mail-in ballots could change the outcome of this tight race.
• Balance of Power: Currently, 13-5 (D-R), but this could decrease to 12-6 if the Republican lead in IL-14 holds.

State Legislature

Graduated Income Tax Amendment

• To successfully ratify the amendment, approval of 60% of those voting on the question or a simple majority of those voting in the election is required. Although this has not been called and there is significant mail-in ballot outstanding, the amendment trails by 500,000 votes, losing 55-45%. That is a large deficit to account for among the remaining outstanding votes.

House

Current balance of power is 74-44 (D-R). That is a supermajority, which is 71 votes. The Democratic hopes of expanding their supermajority by picking off remaining suburban House Republicans are not coming to fruition.

Likely Republican Pickups

Four pickups are likely given the current results though the races remain uncalled by the AP as they are TCTC.

• Dem. Diane Pappas seat (45^th District)
• Dem. Monica Bristow seat (111^th)
• Dem. Nathan Reitz (1116^th)
• Dem. Mary Edly-Allen (51^st District)

Likely Democratic Pickups

• Rep. Grant Wehrli (41^st District)
• Rep. Allen Skillicorn (66^th District)

Likely Republican Holds

The seats that the Democrats were hoping to flip from the Republicans, especially in the suburbs, are not currently in their favor though the races remain uncalled by the AP as they are TCTC.

• Rep. Brad Stephens (20^th)
• Rep. Tom Morison (54^th)
• Rep. Amy Grant (42^nd)
• Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (47^th District)
• Rep. Dan Ugaste (65^th)
• Rep. John Cabello (68^th)
• Rep. Mark Batinick (97^th)

Likely Democratic Holds

These top tier races are trending the Democrats’ favor though the races remain uncalled by the AP as they are TCTC.

• Dem. Lance Yednock seat (76^th District)
• Dem. Maura Hirschauer (49^th District)
• Dem. Joyce Mason (61^st)
• Dem. Terra Costa-Howard (48^th)
• Dem. Michael Halpin (72^nd)
• Dem. Anne Stava-Murray (81^st)

IF these races hold as they are currently trending, the Democrats will lose a net of 2 seats so the balance of power will shift to 72-46 (D-R). This is still a thin supermajority, which is 71 votes.

Senate

The current balance of power is 40-19 (D-R). This is a supermajority, which is 36 votes. The Republicans did not defeat incumbent Senator Dave Koehler who is trending ahead by 7 points though the race is uncalled.  

Likely Dem Pickups

Note that these races remain TCTC

• Open seat left by Jim Oberweis (25^th District). Democrat Karina Villa is slightly ahead of her Republican opponent.

Possible Republican Pickups

• There was an unexpectedly close race in the 10^th Senate District, which includes Chicago. The Democratic incumbent there is currently only leading by 27 votes.

Miscellaneous

• Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx won re-election with 54% of the vote.
• Sen. Iris Martinez is the first Latina elected Cook County Circuit Court Clerk.
• Illinois Supreme Court Justice Thomas Kilbride will lose his retention election, the first such justice to do so. Kilbride was heavily backed by House Speaker Michael Madigan.